I have heard from many people over the years that the world has cycles, which it does. Oftentimes, when discussing global warming, they refer to a time when Greenland was occupied during the European warming and expansion era that occurred between ad 1000 and 1250. Throughout this research, I continued to find time spans that ranged from 225 to 250 years that appeared to be a cycle, specifically within volcanic eruptions. This appeared in North America since the time of the Mayans and continually repeated itself. These events, along with three other events prompted me to look deeper into this cycle as a planetary response to man and not a normal cycle of the planet. These events were the European warming and expansion from 1000 to 1250, the Black Plague in mid 1300s, that was followed by the migration to America in the 1600s. In the 1500's the Spaniards brought with them virus's such as small pox and measles that would decimate the Native American population over the next century. This made America an ideal location for migration as the population was exploding in Europe, again.
Our Ancestry
In order to understand population growth it is best to understand our own ancestry first. If we consider that each generation, on average, reproduces at a rate of 25 years we can calculate the year of our birth and divide this by 25 giving us the number of generations to calculate for a given year. So we will go back in time to view the number of blood relatives we have. I was born in 1959 so this is the year we will use.
We have 2 parents, 4 grandparents, 8 great-grandparents and so on, this is also binary computer language. You begin on your calculator with 2 for your parents when you were born, and then multiply by 2 to get your result. Going back in time, here are some of the results:
Generation Year Number of Relatives
1 1959 2
7 1784 256
14 1609 32,768
19 1484 1,048,576
23 1407 16,777,216
29 1234 1,073741,824
35 1084 68,719.476,736
38 1009 549,755,813,888 After this most calculators fail
This is know as the power of doubling and explains why our ancestry tree goes back only a short time. Soon we find that we are all related.
We have 2 parents, 4 grandparents, 8 great-grandparents and so on, this is also binary computer language. You begin on your calculator with 2 for your parents when you were born, and then multiply by 2 to get your result. Going back in time, here are some of the results:
Generation Year Number of Relatives
1 1959 2
7 1784 256
14 1609 32,768
19 1484 1,048,576
23 1407 16,777,216
29 1234 1,073741,824
35 1084 68,719.476,736
38 1009 549,755,813,888 After this most calculators fail
This is know as the power of doubling and explains why our ancestry tree goes back only a short time. Soon we find that we are all related.
Human Population Cycle
If there are 1,000 people in a village, 500 couples, and they all have one child each (2 per couple) the population will grow to 3,000 considering 3 generations take place before one generation replaces another. At this point the population will stabilize.
0-25 1,000 1,000 ` 0 2,000
25-49 2,000 1,000 0 3,000
50-74 3,000 1,000 -1,000 3,000
75-99 3,000 1,000 -1,000 3,000
If you take the same figures but increase the number of children to 2 per person, 4 per couple the power of numbers reveals the results.
0-25 1,000 2,000 0 3,000
25-49 3,000 4,000 0 7,000
50-74 7,000 8,000 -1,000 14,000
75-99 14,000 16,000 -2,000 28,000
100-124 28,000 32,000 -4,000 56,000
125-149 56,000 64,000 -8,000 112,000
150-174 112,000 128,000 -16,000 224,000
175-199 203,000 256,000 -32,000 427,000
200-224 427,000 512,000 -64,000 875,000
225-249 875,000 1,024,000 -128,000 1,771,000
If each generation reproduces at a rate of 4 children per family, each person will be replaced with 1,771 living people, a population of 1 million will become 1 billion in only 10 generation, 250 years on average. Because each person requires one acre of land to sustain their life, it is now necessary to increase the land necessary to feed the expanding population from 3,000 acres to over 1.7 million acres in nine generations. The amount of land needed to sustain this level of population would rise from less than five square miles to 2,767 square miles, larger than the state of Delaware. There are no problems as long as there are no neighbors, but when neighbors are present, problems begin as growth becomes restrained and resources dwindle away. This is the power of doubling and explains our current struggles as we near this precipice.
Based upon these multiples, if humanity began with only one woman and one man and we sustained a population growth of four children per couple, within 29 generations there would be 2.147 billion births and by the thirtieth generation collapse will occur, and this happens in only 725 years. With three children per couple, we are looking at less than 1,000 years.
0-25 1,000 1,000 ` 0 2,000
25-49 2,000 1,000 0 3,000
50-74 3,000 1,000 -1,000 3,000
75-99 3,000 1,000 -1,000 3,000
If you take the same figures but increase the number of children to 2 per person, 4 per couple the power of numbers reveals the results.
0-25 1,000 2,000 0 3,000
25-49 3,000 4,000 0 7,000
50-74 7,000 8,000 -1,000 14,000
75-99 14,000 16,000 -2,000 28,000
100-124 28,000 32,000 -4,000 56,000
125-149 56,000 64,000 -8,000 112,000
150-174 112,000 128,000 -16,000 224,000
175-199 203,000 256,000 -32,000 427,000
200-224 427,000 512,000 -64,000 875,000
225-249 875,000 1,024,000 -128,000 1,771,000
If each generation reproduces at a rate of 4 children per family, each person will be replaced with 1,771 living people, a population of 1 million will become 1 billion in only 10 generation, 250 years on average. Because each person requires one acre of land to sustain their life, it is now necessary to increase the land necessary to feed the expanding population from 3,000 acres to over 1.7 million acres in nine generations. The amount of land needed to sustain this level of population would rise from less than five square miles to 2,767 square miles, larger than the state of Delaware. There are no problems as long as there are no neighbors, but when neighbors are present, problems begin as growth becomes restrained and resources dwindle away. This is the power of doubling and explains our current struggles as we near this precipice.
Based upon these multiples, if humanity began with only one woman and one man and we sustained a population growth of four children per couple, within 29 generations there would be 2.147 billion births and by the thirtieth generation collapse will occur, and this happens in only 725 years. With three children per couple, we are looking at less than 1,000 years.
Population Projections
The United Nations has been working upon the accuracy of the world population for years and the seven billion mark was celebrated on Oct 31, 2011. Using the data on the world’s population we can see our change over time. Since we hit 7 billion in the world in 2011, we have already added more than the population equal to the United States and will be at 500 million this year, 2017. The US and World population clock can be viewed here.
Year Time Frame #(in billions) % change in total % change per year
1804 1
1927 123 yrs 2 100 0.81
1960 33 yrs 3 50 1.52
1974 14 yrs 4 33 2.36
1987 13 yrs 5 25 1.92
1999 12 yrs 6 20 1.67
2011 12 yrs 7 17 1.42
2023 12 yrs 8 15 1.25
Numbers in bold italic are estimated projections based upon a hopeful reduction of birth rates worldwide. We grew from six billion to seven billion people in only 12 years, 4,380 days. At this rate, we find our growth rate, births minus deaths, averaging 228,310 additional people every day.
Three hypothetical population growths will be used to achieve future population growth scenarios with no famines, plagues, or massive worldwide catastrophes. We need to recall that the tsunami that killed so many people in Sumatra set our population growth back just over one day. The tsunami in Japan set us back only a few hours.
Using three variables, the current rate of 1.42% that is the most recent, a reduced rate of 1.2%, and the Chinese strict implementation of population control that has resulted in a rise in their population growth of 1.07%. We also need to take into consideration that this population growth would need to have been implemented and adhered to since October 31, 2011.
# (in billions) @1.07% per yr @1.2% per yr @1.42% per yr
8 2024 2022 2021
9 2036 2033 2030
10 2046 2042 2038
11 2055 2050 2045
12 2064 2058 2051
13 2071 2065 2057
14 2079 2071 2063
15 2085 2077 2068
16 2091 2082 2073
The US Census Bureau indicates a world population of nine billion will be reached in the year 2046. In order for this to occur, they anticipate the population to rise 12.9% (seven to nine billion) over 35 years (2011–2046). This is a population growth of only 0.368% per year, less than half the 1804–1927 era. Reality indicates that even with strict laws regarding population growth like China, population of the world will be at 10 billion in 2046. As the population rises, the rate of rise to the next billion quickens.
Our population growth is not a result of planned pregnancies, but a result of unplanned pregnancies resulting from sexual activity. As a result, this low rate will not be attained through a reduction in birth rates, but by wars, famines, plagues, or other catastrophes that would result in surpassing the planet’s ability to supply the necessary resources. The United Nations indicates the same kind of statistics and a population rise of only 0.33% per year after 2050. These figures indicate a slow rise in deaths of at least one billion people by 2046, or 33.3 million deaths from unnatural causes per year between now and 2046.
Year Time Frame #(in billions) % change in total % change per year
1804 1
1927 123 yrs 2 100 0.81
1960 33 yrs 3 50 1.52
1974 14 yrs 4 33 2.36
1987 13 yrs 5 25 1.92
1999 12 yrs 6 20 1.67
2011 12 yrs 7 17 1.42
2023 12 yrs 8 15 1.25
Numbers in bold italic are estimated projections based upon a hopeful reduction of birth rates worldwide. We grew from six billion to seven billion people in only 12 years, 4,380 days. At this rate, we find our growth rate, births minus deaths, averaging 228,310 additional people every day.
Three hypothetical population growths will be used to achieve future population growth scenarios with no famines, plagues, or massive worldwide catastrophes. We need to recall that the tsunami that killed so many people in Sumatra set our population growth back just over one day. The tsunami in Japan set us back only a few hours.
Using three variables, the current rate of 1.42% that is the most recent, a reduced rate of 1.2%, and the Chinese strict implementation of population control that has resulted in a rise in their population growth of 1.07%. We also need to take into consideration that this population growth would need to have been implemented and adhered to since October 31, 2011.
# (in billions) @1.07% per yr @1.2% per yr @1.42% per yr
8 2024 2022 2021
9 2036 2033 2030
10 2046 2042 2038
11 2055 2050 2045
12 2064 2058 2051
13 2071 2065 2057
14 2079 2071 2063
15 2085 2077 2068
16 2091 2082 2073
The US Census Bureau indicates a world population of nine billion will be reached in the year 2046. In order for this to occur, they anticipate the population to rise 12.9% (seven to nine billion) over 35 years (2011–2046). This is a population growth of only 0.368% per year, less than half the 1804–1927 era. Reality indicates that even with strict laws regarding population growth like China, population of the world will be at 10 billion in 2046. As the population rises, the rate of rise to the next billion quickens.
Our population growth is not a result of planned pregnancies, but a result of unplanned pregnancies resulting from sexual activity. As a result, this low rate will not be attained through a reduction in birth rates, but by wars, famines, plagues, or other catastrophes that would result in surpassing the planet’s ability to supply the necessary resources. The United Nations indicates the same kind of statistics and a population rise of only 0.33% per year after 2050. These figures indicate a slow rise in deaths of at least one billion people by 2046, or 33.3 million deaths from unnatural causes per year between now and 2046.
Population growth greatly increased with advancements in medicine and medical practices in the early 1800s. Further technologies such as penicillin, antibiotics, immunizations, and electricity have all contributed to a very low infant and child mortality rate today, even when compared to only 50 years ago. Current technology and advances in medicine have allowed us to increase the longevity and health of the people bringing in another extended generation. Comparatively, the impact on the longevity and quality of life is shadowed in comparison to the impact of child and infant mortality on the world population. Along with this technology, we have forgotten that there is also a responsibility in preventing overpopulation and potential self-destruction.
In order to hit a zero population growth, which is necessary for civilization to continue, there must be at least 228,310 less births or increased deaths per day from unnatural causes. Although we cannot control the world population, regions that conform to these alterations and enact laws to prevent any further environmental degradation will sustain best. It’s for this reason that action must take place no matter how small it may seem.
In a democratic environment, it is the responsibility of its leaders to create awareness and enact laws to protect its citizens, especially if the threat to its people are due to the activities of the people themselves. This allows the people to become aware and enact measures in their own lives to promote change. This has to come about willingly by the people, and there is nothing any one person can do. It’s a culmination of what everyone must do through public awareness and distributed knowledge that we must all do together.
In order to hit a zero population growth, which is necessary for civilization to continue, there must be at least 228,310 less births or increased deaths per day from unnatural causes. Although we cannot control the world population, regions that conform to these alterations and enact laws to prevent any further environmental degradation will sustain best. It’s for this reason that action must take place no matter how small it may seem.
In a democratic environment, it is the responsibility of its leaders to create awareness and enact laws to protect its citizens, especially if the threat to its people are due to the activities of the people themselves. This allows the people to become aware and enact measures in their own lives to promote change. This has to come about willingly by the people, and there is nothing any one person can do. It’s a culmination of what everyone must do through public awareness and distributed knowledge that we must all do together.